Manhattan Office Leasing Jumped 54% in October, Colliers Says. What Growing Companies Should Do Before Rents Climb Further

NEW YORK — Manhattan’s office market just put up a month that looks a lot more like the old normal than the post-pandemic hangover.

According to Colliers’ October 2026 Manhattan office report, covered by Commercial Observer’s Mark Hallum on Nov. 2, leasing volume in Manhattan jumped 54.1% compared with September and 24.7% versus the same 31-day period in 2025. Colliers said that activity matched the pre-pandemic average that ended in March 2020.

For founders and growing companies still hunting for a deal on sublease space, the headline numbers are less interesting than what sits underneath them: less available inventory, higher asking rents, and a sublet market that is no longer a bargain bin.

Momentum Across Midtown, Midtown South, and Downtown

Franklin Wallach, Colliers’ executive managing director of research and business development, said in a statement that Manhattan’s office market “gained significant momentum in October, as leasing activity accelerated and market fundamentals continued to strengthen.” He added that leasing volume climbed well above historical averages, availability declined to its tightest level since August 2020, and sublet supply fell to its lowest point in seven years.

Volume was not evenly spread. Midtown proper led with 2.4 million square feet leased. Midtown South accounted for 1.5 million square feet, and Lower Manhattan posted 567,181 square feet, according to Colliers via Commercial Observer.

Availability tightened by 0.1% to 12.3% Manhattan-wide. Average asking rent rose to $79.47 per square foot in October, from $78.36 in September and $75.18 in October 2025.

Wallach also pointed to recovery milestones: Midtown’s available supply fell below its March 2020 level, Manhattan’s average asking rent matched its pre-pandemic average, and Midtown’s asking rent surpassed the March 2020 average. With year-to-date demand running ahead of last year, he said Manhattan remains on pace for its strongest leasing year since 2000 if current conditions persist.

Big Deals Drove the Month — But the Market Story Matters More

Colliers cited several large October drivers: Citadel’s 1.05 million-square-foot anchor commitment at 350 Park Avenue; fintech firm Ramp expanding to 460,300 square feet at 28-40 West 23rd Street; Seward & Kissel renewing 171,112 square feet at One Battery Park Plaza; and Morrison & Foerster’s 141,148-square-foot renewal at 250 West 55th Street.

Those names explain a chunk of the volume spike. They should not distract growing companies from the market-wide shift. Individual expansion stories, including deals already covered elsewhere for firms like Ramp, are one thing. A Manhattan-wide jump in leasing, tighter availability, and the lowest sublet supply in seven years is another. That is the condition set founders walk into when they renew, expand, or leave a WeWork-style flexible deal for a conventional lease.

Practical Takeaways for New York Founders

If you are a startup or small company shopping for Manhattan space in late 2026, Colliers’ October report points to a few concrete moves:

1. Stop assuming sublease will save you. Sublet supply at a seven-year low means the soft, tenant-favorable window that defined much of 2021–2024 is closing. Price your budget against direct space, not last year’s sublease comps.
2. Budget for rising asking rents. At $79.47 per square foot Manhattan-wide — up from $75.18 a year earlier — a 10,000-square-foot need is already a meaningful annual swing versus 2025 rents before operating expenses and electricity.
3. Expect competition in Midtown South. With 1.5 million square feet leased there in October alone, creative and tech-friendly buildings between Midtown and Downtown are not quiet. If your search is concentrated around Flatiron, Nomad, or Chelsea, move faster on tours and term sheets.
4. Use renewals as leverage while you still can. Law firm and financial renewals in the Colliers list show tenants locking in. If your lease expires in 2027 or 2028, start the conversation early rather than waiting for availability to tighten further.
5. Separate trophy headlines from your search. A hedge-fund anchor at 350 Park Avenue sets a different market than a 5,000- to 20,000-square-foot growth lease. Ask brokers for comps in your size band and neighborhood, not just the month’s biggest signings.
6. Watch availability, not just rent. A 12.3% Manhattan-wide availability rate that is the tightest since August 2020 changes negotiating leverage even when headline rents look only modestly higher month to month.

What This Means for Growing Companies

The practical read for New York operators is straightforward. If your headcount plan for 2027 includes more in-office days, more customer meetings, or a first dedicated office after years of remote work, October’s Colliers data says the market is moving against delay. Leasing is accelerating, empty sublease floors are scarcer, and asking rents have already caught back up to pre-pandemic averages citywide.

That does not mean every founder should rush into a 10-year Midtown lease. It does mean the “wait six months for a cheaper sublet” strategy is getting harder to defend with data. Get current comps, decide whether Midtown South competition is worth the premium for your team, and treat renewal timing as a strategic decision — not an admin task for next quarter.